Friday, June 20, 2008

Major Arcana Exxon Mobil

As President pushes to lift the moratorium on on shore drilling Exxon Mobil’s new web site is as slick as they come and there media campaign is the pinnacle if extremely high financed marketing.  They, like everyone else knows on this issue the President is going to finally get his way and they’re buttering us up with the hopeful scientist and the concerned responsible executives with our best interests at heart.


With a smile they prepare us for the difficulties involved in securing oil for the future and in the same breath reassure us that there is plenty left.


But why do they need new oil leases when they aren’t even using most of the ones they now have in the gulf?


Because the war hasn’t even begun.  Iraq is about tactical positioning.


Ask yourself one question?  Why would Iran risk the wrath of a global community to build nuclear weapons with the armies of there enemy at there doorstep?  Because they are scared.  Because they know what’s coming.  Everyone knows what’s coming and no one wants to talk about it.


All we really know about Iraq is it’s a mess.  We also know that Supermajor is now effectively in control of the Iraqi oil supply.  Maybe it’s not that much of a mess.


We also know that most of the worlds oil supply is controlled by OPEC and we know OPEC is made up of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Indonesia.


And it’s no secret that In 1956, M. King Hubbert correctly predicted US oil production would peak around 1971. When this occurred and the US began losing its excess production capacity, the OPEC cartel gained the ability to manipulate oil prices, leading to the 1973 and 1979 oil crises. Since then, most other countries have also peaked. China has confirmed that two of its largest producing regions are in decline, and Mexico's national oil company, Pemex, has announced that Cantarell Field, one of the world's largest offshore fields, was expected to peak in 2006, and then decline 14% per annum.


We also know that oil sand production is heating up at a furious pace.


With gas prices bouncing between $4.00–$5.00  across the nation the and Supermajor coming off the highest corporate profits in the history of the world the stage is set.


Once the ability to tap into the last reserves of oil in this country is secured and the machinery is in place the real war, the secret war will begin.


Supermajor with the full force of the United States government and the MIC behind it is squaring off with OPEC.


This isn’t a global conspiracy this is global politics as usual.  By definition OPEC itself is a conspiracy, and it has considerable control over the price of oil internationally.


1967, the Arab members of OPEC formed a separate, overlapping group, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, for the purpose of centering policy and exerting pressure on the West over its support of Israel in the Six Day War.


1973 OPEC refused to ship oil to western countries that had supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. This refusal caused a fourfold increase in the price of oil, which lasted five months.


1975 OPEC nations then agreed to raise crude oil prices by 10%.


"Of course [the world price of oil] is going to rise," the Shah told the New York Times in 1973. "Certainly! And how...; You [Western nations] increased the price of wheat you sell us by 300%, and the same for sugar and cement...; You buy our crude oil and sell it back to us, refined as petrochemicals, at a hundred times the price you've paid to us...; It's only fair that, from now on, you should pay more for oil. Let's say 10 times more."[12]


And Something happened, something that woke the sleeper.  Iraq invaded Kuwait.  But it wasn’t the invasion that was important, that was just the outcome.  1990 after a decade long war against Iran the Iraqi leader asked OPEC to raise oil prices, and then blinked.  A chink in the armor appeared.


A long time alliance now gave way to the opportunity that no one could pass up.  It’s no secret wars are almost always fought for profit, but this time there was more at stake.


I grew up watching most of this play out on TV. I grew up watching documentaries about it on PBS.  It’s not a conspiracy it’s the way the world works and has always worked.  People are greedy and petty and they fight and they hold grudges, and sometimes as we have seen through out history, those grudges are generational.  An old favorite of American lore is the Hatfield-McCoy feud but we saw it play out in the 90’s as generational hatred shredded the former Yugoslavia.  That hatred is still very much alive.


What we are seeing is just another party of a struggle that began a long time ago when a man named Abraham had two sons Ishmael and Isaac.


This Secret War has played out throughout history and it’s going to run it’s course one way or another.  There is never going to be a solution unless we have an open and honest dialogue about this.  Christendom and the Muslim world are at war and have been for a long time.  To try and connect ever war and ever event to this is a crime because it hides the truth.  There are wars all the time for all sorts of reasons.  This one just never got put to bed.  Maybe it never will.


Istanbul was Constantinople, now it’s Istanbul, and no one ever forgotten.


But this is not a grand conspiracy it’s an ordinary one.  Saddam’s actions and OPEC’s reactions where a happy surprise to the west.  When the opportunity to go into Iraq opened up we jumped and the biggest and fastest mobilization in history began.


Though technically Iraq had the second largest standing army at the time it was a massacre.  The Desert Storm swept across Iraq on a biblical scale.  Any doubt about the military supremacy of the west was lay asunder.  But with victory at hand we stopped.  Why?  Because we’re nice guys?


We stopped because we couldn’t pull it off yet.  If you want to take out OPEC you need a lot of money, and you need something else, lots of oil.  We didn’t have the technology or the money to go after all of the oil off out coast.  Big Oil wasn’t ready to support the play yet.


Most of the figures look at oil that is accessible by current technology, leaving about 1 trillion barrels of oil we can’t get to.  The problem with this math is it’s based on technology from 20 years ago.  But technology moves fast and so do profits.  In 2006 Chevron and a few other oil companies hit the mother load.


We get more of our oil from Canada and Mexico than we do from OPEC now and by John McCain’s own numbers there is 75 billion barrels or 22 years of oil off the coast of the US not including the Gulf of Mexico.  But US oil production is still on the decline.  We’re also reducing our federal oil reserves.


The last few cards are being dealt now as Bush pushes for the last road block to be removed, to pave the way for Supermajor.  The Democrats will kick and scream but with gas prices this high they aren’t going to burn a lot of fuel.


The de-stabilization of OPEC and the middle east is almost complete and when Supermajor is ready some of this countries economic leaders will quietly exit the market and it will be flooded with billions of barrels of oil and as the world markets in a panic to the plummeting price of oil, and OPEC braces for the worst, Big Oil will shut the valves.


When the moratorium was imposed in 1982, gasoline was $1.20 and oil was $30 a barrel. Since the moratorium was instituted, we've had two wars in the Middle East, and in between a decade of garrisoning troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.


1991 got us troops on the ground and enough key players in OPEC scared enough to negotiate there end game deals.  2001 was a horrible tragedy and no one knew it was coming we got caught with our pants down.  But sometimes.  Accusing the President of mastermining something this big is a joker.  Someone somewhere down the line would have leaked it.  There is enough evidence to suggest something was going to happen, and enough to at least allow the speculation that based on the knowledge something was going to happen plans where layed.


Do you think Obama is going to stop this?  He’s the same damn thing.  He’s riding on the waves of the sea of change, a champion to ushure in what, the next Age?  No one even agrees when that is but by any school of thought it’s at least another thousand years aware.  You think we’re on the verge of some awakening?  I guess you missed the point about him lying to us.  I will being replace by I won’t isn’t an about face it’s a bold faced lie, one we’ll have forgotten by the time the election rolls around.


You did look at this guys tax return didn’t you?

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Mr. Harsh Guy