Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Light sweet crude hitting the fan

Is this the last bubble popping? Remarks made today in senate hearings and further comments by Bernanke regarding further declines in US demand and the second sputter, the second largest dump of oil prices since 1991.

Light, sweet crude dropped from $146.43 to $140.26 on the day. The first dump happened on the 8th. Has the monstrous velocity of oil, on a near steady climb from $86.81on 12/05/07 finally hit it's ceiling. Is a massive dump around the corner?

While OPEC and specifically the Saudis have been under mounting pressure to increase output, they have maintained output levels are fine.

Global fears about the world banking system are mounting and global confidence in the Freddy/Fan bail out is buckling under the pressure and the US Dollar takes another nose dive against the Euro. $1.6038 against the Euro, a record low.

The German ZEW is in a tailspin and the Bank of France business index is at a 5 year low.

"Sentiment is really fragile," said Louis Wong, research director with Phillip Securities. "Investors are worried that there might be more bank failures, especially small banks in the United States."

the MSCI's main world stock index is at a 21-month low and an 11 day tailspin and the pan-Eoripean FTSEEurofirst 300 closed down 1.2%

Japan's Nikkei average closed down almost 2% and the Euro thunders on climbing past it's record in April of $1.6018.

Market in balance and a growing realization that the credit crunch and mortgage explosion is just beginning to hit have panic spreading across global markets.

If oil continues to plummet many fear the other commodities will begin to falter. The results would be catastrophic failure after failure of global markets as contagion sweeps the globe, and this time around with bail-out prices in the trillions no force on earth could stop it.

Why would commodities go down? That's just stupid... We have been down this road before. Don't forget S&L.

Aside from picking a few key institutes to shore up and unfortunately, raising interest rates there isn't much Bernanke can do, and as far as rates go, soon he will have no chose as the Dollar continues to fall and inflation begins to pick up steam. As he admits the housing market and economy will "bottom out and begin a slow recovery as credit conditions gradually improve" over the next two years.

With growing liquidity problems, American banks are turning to outside investment as internal options disappear. As global confidence in American banks fails, these sources will dry up, and Bernanke can only do so much.

The Fed and Senate Lawmakers need to act before the last ounce of global confidence vanishes in a puff of logic.

But Bernanke is caught between a rock and a hard place. If rates go up to fast the spread between the cost of money and the rate of return on assets will be a problem. But if he doesn't raise them inflation will continue to rise and the dollar will continue to fall. Have fun Ben, I'm rooting for you!

The Senators need to get over there egos now and drop there hardline economic models, they don't work it's to big now. Basic common sense rules need to be put in place but to much regulation will shut the economy down.

Simple stuff, no lying, no shorting vehicles without borrowing them stiff jail terms for the crooks, but oppressive regulations will stifle the economy.

While Democratic economic guru, and Obama adviser Paul Volker is truly the man in regards to his massive round house to the face of stagflation, he also in the same fell swoop sent the nation into the worst unemployment since the big one. It wasn't the glowing success it's painted to be.

To many Volker's sharp change in policy spelled utter doom, and the Volker Fed faced the harshest criticism since The Great Depression. And he'll do it again in a heartbeat.

Volker had been President of the Fed before taking the Chairman roll and inflation peaked at 11% in 1974. Unemployment was beginning to take hold in much of the nation.

Though he had killed one half of stagflation, the inflation, the second half being unemployment exploded and with it debt, and in many ways the final blow to American family farms. Symbolized when indebted farmers blockaded the Eccles building with there trackers.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. For the ultra rich the years that followed were a bonanza, while tax payers struggled to pick themselves off the ground and the wealthy hid there income in offshore accounts.

But this time around law enforcement is pushing it's weight around. reaching with post 9/11 authority into these once safe havens, and with them follows the most frightening entity on earth, the IRS.

Securities Exchange Commission Chairman Cox put it, they are "law enforcement" but he's been reluctant to use if and is criticized during his tenure, naked short selling has been rampant with no or little enforcement.

He's effectively taken Fanny and Freddy, along with 19 other lending institutions including BoA and Citigroup out of the speculative shorting mess, requiring short sellers to pre-borrow shares before shorting.

Until now no one has addressed the speculators who are largely responsible for oil prices and in part bank liquidity. Who are doing it with no money down.

But Cox has largely sat by and allowed this mess to develop, and many believe his actions barely scratch the surface. Pressure on Cox to start doing his job.

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Mr. Harsh Guy