Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Risk of a war in the Strait of Hormuz

This is the infamous choke point in the Persian Gulf where on july 3, 1988 290 people were killed when an Iran Air Airbus A300 passenger jet was shot down over the strait by the United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes. There is still lingering controversy about the event, considered among the most controversial tragedies in aviation history.

While no one doubts the US forces could both swiftly cripple the Iranian military but also any significant attempt they made at shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. There is still a major threat to shipping from the gulf and that is the 2,440 km of the Iranian gulf coastline.

We clearly saw how a small craft could do tremendous damage to USS Cole

With such vast amounts of money tided to each shipment should just one like blast on an oil tanker occur it could have a tremendous ripple effect.

When this is combined with what would clearly be a shutdown in Iranian oil exports regardless of how quick any war ends it would likely force oil and therefore gas prices into a tailspin.


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Mr. Harsh Guy